The tactical success in the areas of Ridkodub, Nove, and Katerynivka was achieved through a complex maneuver that Biletskyi described as a deliberate misdirection. Ukrainian forces executed a feint that induced Russian commanders to concentrate their reserves on defending a position south of the actual objective. This strategic deception allowed Ukrainian units to overrun the settlement of Nove, which had been developed into a significant logistical and command hub for Russian forces. By recapturing this key node, Ukrainian troops have established a pincer movement around the Zelena-Dolyna settlement, effectively isolating the Russian positions that were previously fortified in that sector.
Operation Vivaldi represents a broader, phased counter-assault aimed at liberating occupied territory. According to Ukrainian military officials, the operation has now reclaimed nearly 68 square miles of land. The recent offensive utilized modified Soviet-era BTR-60 armored personnel carriers, which were converted into unmanned kamikaze vehicles to breach entrenched Russian defenses. This adaptation of older platforms for autonomous or remote-controlled high-impact roles highlights the logistical ingenuity being applied to overcome superior Russian firepower.
The human dimension of this offensive is marked by an unprecedented rate of surrenders. Biletskyi noted that the concept of Russian forces refusing to capitulate has been overtaken by reality, with entire units—including officers, pilots, and artillerymen—surrendering en masse. These prisoners are expected to be part of future prisoner exchange negotiations. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian combat losses over the past day alone stood at 1,440 soldiers killed and wounded, contributing to a cumulative tally of over 1.53 million Russian troops eliminated since the start of the war in February 2022.
Despite these localized gains, the broader territorial picture remains complex and subject to varying analytical assessments. Data from the OSINT group DeepState indicates that over the four-week period ending September 22, 2026, Russia achieved a net gain of 37 square miles of Ukrainian territory. This contrasts with a previous four-week period where Russia suffered a net loss of 3 square miles. However, independent analysis of Institute for the Study of War (ISW) data suggests a different trajectory, indicating that Russia lost a net of 1 square mile during the same recent period. As of September 22, Russian forces control approximately 12% of Ukraine’s territory, an area roughly equivalent to half the U.S. state of Illinois, according to DeepState figures, while other analyses place the figure closer to 20%.
On the ground in the week leading up to September 22, Russian forces had occupied the town of Markove and advanced near several villages, including Fedorivka and Bilytske. In direct response, Ukrainian forces liberated Shandryholove, Derylove, and Seredne, and pushed Russian units back near Zapadne. These counter-movements suggest that while Russian forces continue to probe for advances, Ukrainian defenses are increasingly capable of inflicting attrition and reclaiming lost ground through coordinated offensives.
The strategic implication of Operation Vivaldi is the demonstration that Ukrainian forces can still execute large-scale, multi-phase counter-attacks that degrade Russian combat power significantly. By forcing the enemy to burn through reserves in futile counterattacks and capturing large numbers of prisoners, Ukraine is altering the cost-benefit analysis for Russian occupation. As the conflict enters its fourth year, the focus on recapturing specific hubs like Nove suggests a strategy aimed at disrupting Russian supply lines and command structures rather than solely pursuing broad frontal advances.
