In a survey conducted between 12 and 24 September, 52.4 per cent of respondents stated that leaving the EU was the wrong decision, compared with 29.7 per cent who believed it was right. A further 17.9 per cent remained undecided. These figures align with long-term trends, as the proportion of Britons claiming to have made the wrong decision has consistently exceeded 50 per cent in various surveys since the summer of 2022. In early June, a separate YouGov study found that 57 per cent of adults held this view, while only 30 per cent maintained that leaving was correct. Support for the original decision to leave has never crossed the 50 per cent threshold in the ten years following the referendum, reaching a high of 47 per cent shortly after the vote before declining to a low of 29 per cent in May of this year.
This evolving consensus is driving a formal review by the UK government of its options for future engagement with the bloc. The Prime Minister has described the current state of affairs as “not good enough” and has indicated openness to actions that could go “all the way” to rejoining the EU. This stance contrasts with the Labour Party’s 2024 election manifesto, which explicitly ruled out rejoining the EU, the single market, or a customs union. The government plans to set out these options around the next UK-EU summit, expected in November, assessing what is “doable” and weighing the pros and cons of each potential arrangement.
Public opinion on specific alternatives reveals a preference for closer ties over isolation. In the September survey, 49 per cent of voters supported rejoining the European Union, while 28.5 per cent opposed it. Other forms of closer cooperation also garnered majority support: retaining the current relationship while removing trade barriers was backed by 48.2 per cent, a customs union by 47.1 per cent, and associate membership by 45.5 per cent. Joining the single market, specifically, received 45.1 per cent support. Conversely, moving further away from the EU was the least popular option, with 41.2 per cent opposing it and only 27.9 per cent in favor.
The potential electoral implications of these positions are significant. Scenarios involving closer ties to the EU could increase the governing party’s vote share by between 4.3 and 7.4 percentage points, with the largest potential rise linked to a proposal for a referendum in which the Prime Minister campaigns for rejoining. However, the mechanics of such a change remain a subject of debate. Almost a third of respondents said a vote would be needed before rejoining, while more than one in six believed a general-election mandate would be sufficient, with a similar proportion saying Parliament could make the decision.
Timing is another key variable. Among those favoring closer relations, 25.9 per cent said the UK should rejoin immediately, while 22.9 per cent favored doing so within three years and 8.4 per cent within the next decade. However, 23 per cent of respondents stated they did not want closer relations with the EU at all. When asked whether Brexit had been a success or failure, 54.9 per cent called it a failure, compared with 12.2 per cent who described it as a success.
On the European side, leaders have signaled openness to a British return. French President Emmanuel Macron and Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez have stated that the EU would welcome Britain. However, any bid for membership would require negotiations with the EU and unanimous agreement from all member states, a complex diplomatic hurdle that remains unaddressed in current public discourse.
While the data suggests a growing appetite for a reset in UK-EU relations, it does not establish agreement on what Britain should specifically seek or the terms it should accept. The government’s upcoming review will likely determine whether this shift in public sentiment translates into a formal application for reintegration or a more limited form of cooperative framework. For now, the focus remains on the November summit, where the scope of future engagement may begin to take shape.
