The polling data highlights a significant increase in voter uncertainty. Mario Canseco, President of Research Co., noted that 15% of likely voters remain undecided, compared to 8% at a similar stage in the 2024 campaign. This volatility is reflected in the party retention rates; while the BC Conservatives and NDP have retained 83% and 81% of their 2025 federal election supporters respectively, the BC Green Party has seen a significant drop, retaining only 51% of its 2024 provincial voters. Of those Green defectors, 25% shifted to the NDP and 12% to the Conservatives.
Support for the parties varies by demographic and region. The Conservatives hold a notable lead among voters aged 18 to 34 (47% to 41%) and are ahead in Northern BC (55% to 39%) and the Fraser Valley. Conversely, the NDP maintains a strong advantage among voters aged 55 and over (52% to 41%) and leads on Vancouver Island (52% to 34%). In Metro Vancouver and Southern BC, the race remains tight, with the Conservatives holding a narrow 2-point edge in both regions.
Leader perception plays a crucial role in the shifting landscape. Premier David Eby’s approval rating has stagnated at 49%, while his momentum score is negative at -19, with 36% of respondents stating their opinion of him has worsened. In contrast, BC Conservative leader Lorne Doerkson has debuted with a 45% approval rating, an 11-point increase over the previous leader, Kerry-Lynne Findlay. Doerkson is one of only two leaders with positive momentum. An earlier Ipsos poll from October 1 corroborated this trend, showing the Conservatives ahead by two points (42% to 40%) and indicating that the NDP’s call for a snap election is viewed as risky, with 50% of British Columbians disapproving of the timing.
Campaign rhetoric has also shifted focus. Premier Eby has emphasized external threats, specifically citing U.S. President Donald Trump’s policies, rather than focusing primarily on his provincial opponent. Eby mentioned Trump’s name 18 times during a recent campaign rally at the Canada-U.S. border. This strategy appears to be a response to declining personal approval ratings for Eby, which have dropped from 53% in March 2025 to 31% in June 2026, according to Angus Reid Institute data.
The election is scheduled to take place in less than two weeks. With 19% of BC Conservative voters and 17% of BC NDP voters indicating they could change their minds before election day, the final outcome remains fluid. The high proportion of undecided voters suggests that late-breaking issues or debates could significantly alter the current standings.
