In northwestern KwaZulu-Natal, SAWS reported that the heatwave, active from 11–13 October 2026, will dissipate by Tuesday. The service noted that extremely uncomfortable conditions are also expected in the southern parts of the Eastern Cape. Meteorological analysis indicates a surface trough is positioned over the central and western interior, while a surface high remains over the eastern parts of the country. Upper-air perturbations may contribute to isolated or scattered thunderstorms over the central and eastern regions.
Conversely, the Western and Northern Cape are experiencing severe flooding risks due to persistent downpours that began on Sunday morning as rain moved in from the Atlantic. SAWS forecasts that between Monday and Wednesday, more than 200mm of rain could fall across parts of the Western Cape, with mountainous regions potentially recording totals approaching 300mm. These conditions coincide with strong north-westerly to westerly gusts exceeding 60mph (97km/h) across large areas of southern South Africa, including the Western and Eastern Cape. Stronger gusts are likely over higher ground, particularly in the Cape Fold Mountains.
SAWS has highlighted the potential for flash flooding, mudslides, rockfalls, and damage to infrastructure and property in the wetter regions. The public is urged to avoid sharing information from unauthorized sources and to monitor official forecasts for updates on the likelihood and severity of potential impacts. Partly cloudy and warm to hot conditions are expected to persist on Monday, with isolated afternoon thunderstorms developing over the central and western parts of the country. Similar conditions are anticipated on Tuesday, with severe thunderstorms possible over the Eastern Cape, the Free State, and southern parts of the North West.
These current warnings follow recent severe weather events in the Western and Eastern Cape on 5-7 May, when heavy rain triggered flooding, road closures, and infrastructure damage. During that period, more than 300mm of rain fell in some areas, forcing evacuations in the Gamtoos Valley after the Kouga dam exceeded capacity. Power outages and at least 45 road closures left many communities isolated, resulting in one death in Knysna, Western Cape, and the evacuation of more than 2,000 people to emergency shelters.
Looking ahead, the heatwave in KwaZulu-Natal is set to conclude on Tuesday, while the rainy period in the Western and Northern Cape is expected to continue through Wednesday. SAWS advises stakeholders to rely solely on official channels for regular updates as the situation develops.
