The election is scheduled for October 25, 2026. Vox Brasil surveyed 2,100 voters aged 16 and older, with the poll registered under number BR-04332/2026 with Brazil’s electoral court. Among all respondents, including those who chose blank or invalid ballots or remained undecided, Lula received 46.4% of the vote compared to Bolsonaro’s 44.6%. Approximately 3.9% of respondents were undecided, while 5% selected a blank or invalid option. The poll also noted that 45.3% of respondents stated they would never support either candidate, a figure cited for both Lula and Bolsonaro.
Comparative data from other polling services presents a different picture. Datafolha and Quaest recently reported that 51% of valid votes favored Flávio Bolsonaro, with Lula trailing at 49%. This discrepancy highlights the close nature of the race and the divergent methodologies or timing among major polling organizations. In the previous Vox Brasil survey, conducted from October 5 to 7, Lula had 44.2% of the vote against Bolsonaro’s 42.7%. Between the two surveys, the share of undecided respondents dropped sharply from 9.7% to 3.9%, while blank and invalid votes increased from 3.4% to 5%.
Political dynamics surrounding the final stretch of the campaign include allegations and legislative activity. Reports indicate that Lula’s recent polling momentum coincided with the Brazilian Congress passing a bill to shorten the standard workweek from six to five days, a policy long associated with the Workers’ Party. Additionally, the two candidates are scheduled to face off in their first televised debate on Sunday. The debate occurs amid emerging reports regarding Bolsonaro’s involvement in the Banco Master banking scandal, described as the largest in Brazilian history. While Vox Brasil data suggests a slight edge for the incumbent in valid votes, the overall contest remains tightly balanced within statistical margins.
