The PoderData/Aya survey, registered under number BR-08134/2026, was conducted between October 5 and 7 with 3,000 voters across 705 municipalities in all 27 states. The margin of error is 1.8 percentage points at a 95% confidence level. The shift in intent is driven by first-round momentum, as Bolsonaro gained three points and Lula lost three points compared to the previous PoderData/Aya release, which had shown both candidates tied at 50% based on fieldwork from September 30 to October 2.
Beyond vote intention, the survey indicates a reversal in perceived likelihood of victory. When asked who would prevail on October 25, 54% of voters named Bolsonaro, while only 37% chose Lula. This contrasts with pre-first-round data, where 48% anticipated a Lula victory and 45% expected Bolsonaro to win. Confidence among supporters also diverges: 92% of Bolsonaro’s first-round voters believe he will win the presidency, compared to 76% of Lula’s supporters who feel the same about their candidate.
Regional and demographic breakdowns highlight the distinct coalitions supporting each candidate. Bolsonaro leads in the South (58%), Centro-Oeste (54%), and the densely populated Sudeste region (51%), as well as among voters with completed secondary education (55%). Lula maintains a significant advantage among women, who support him 50% to 42% for Bolsonaro. However, Lula faces challenges regarding his administration’s performance, with 49% disapproving of his job performance and 44% approving. Overall, 46% describe his governance as poor or very poor, against 37% who rate it good or excellent.
Thursday’s release initiates an unusually concentrated period of polling activity. Datafolha, which had previously shown Lula ahead in second-round simulations, is also publishing a national survey today. AtlasIntel is scheduled to release a 5,000-voter survey on Friday, followed by Vox Brasil’s 2,100-voter poll the same day. Ipespe will publish its national poll on Saturday. By the weekend, at least five distinct post-election data points will be available to assess the durability of the first-round shift.
The second round of the election is scheduled for October 25. Historical context notes that since the first direct presidential election in 1989, no candidate has erased a first-round deficit to win the runoff. While this streak does not determine the 2026 outcome, it frames the scale of the challenge facing Lula in the remaining 17 days of the campaign.
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