The disaster began on Independence Day, when slow-moving, training thunderstorms dumped more than a month’s worth of rain on parts of central Texas. The National Weather Service (NWS) had issued a Level 2 of 4 risk for excessive rainfall and flash flood warnings with “considerable” impact tags, which automatically triggered wireless emergency alerts. By early Thursday, river gauges recorded extremely rapid rises. At Center Point, the Guadalupe River rose 32 feet in four hours, while gauges at Comfort recorded a 16-foot rise in just 30 minutes. The NWS identified a “deadly flood wave” barreling down the Guadalupe River, a waterway that runs alongside Camp Mystic, where two dozen children and two counselors were killed in flooding last July.
As the immediate rainfall subsided, the focus shifted to the downstream impact. The Guadalupe River is expected to reach levels similar to those of the catastrophic July 4, 2025, flood in some areas. The Nueces River, which snakes around Uvalde, has emerged as one of the greatest threats. Abbott noted that the flow rate of the Nueces is expected to be twice that of Niagara Falls. While the rain has let up in northern Uvalde and western Kerr and Edward counties, minimal rain is expected in the central region this weekend. Instead, residents face high heat indexes while the rivers continue their gradual rise.
W. Nim Kidd, the chief of the Texas Division of Emergency Management, emphasized the dynamic nature of the crisis. “We had days of 10 or 15 inches of rain,” Kidd said. “Another day of one or two inches of rain could produce equally catastrophic impacts, so we are not out of this fight yet.” The state has deployed thousands of first responders, vehicles, boats, and aircraft. Rescues have been extensive, with approximately 270 people saved by state resources and an additional 300 rescued by local officials in the Uvalde and Zavala regions. At least four people have been confirmed dead in the subsequent storms and flash flooding, including a man swept away in an RV near Comfort and another while driving near Uvalde.
The worst of the rain is behind us. But … very importantly … for a while, as in for days, the rivers are going to continue to rise because of the flow of water downstream. Residents and leaders need to understand the rivers will still rise and still pose life-threatening danger to anybody near those rivers.
Harrison Tran, a forecaster with the NWS San Antonio and Austin office, explained that while the rise is not immediate like a flash flood, it is rapid. “Sometimes the rate of rise can be quick,” Tran said, “but it’s more of a gradual rise over the course of several hours or days.” The Devil’s River in southwest Texas is expected to reach major flooding stage Saturday morning, with potential rises of up to 22 feet. The Rio Grande is expected to reach similar levels Sunday morning. Further south, the Nueces and Frio Rivers are expected to reach major flood stages in the coming days, with Nueces County by the Gulf not expected to peak until Tuesday.
The Frio River is likely to crest when it reaches Derby, about 59 miles south of Uvalde. The Nueces River may crest for a longer period due to the volume of water it accumulated earlier in the week. Abbott declared a major disaster on Friday, opening the door to federal aid for at least 28 counties. Officials urge residents to remain on high alert, as even small amounts of additional rainfall could exacerbate the situation. The danger persists at low-water crossings, streams, roads, and underpasses, with residents advised to seek higher ground and avoid travel unless under evacuation orders.
As the weekend approaches, the community faces a dual threat: the residual danger of the rising rivers and the return of high temperatures. The scientific consensus is clear that the current water levels are a direct result of the unprecedented rainfall rates, which exceeded three inches per hour in some areas. While the immediate storm has passed, the hydrological response of the watershed continues, requiring sustained vigilance from both residents and emergency services in the days ahead.
