This disruption in Riyadh is part of a widening crisis that has entered its ninth month since the United States and Israel launched joint strikes on Iran on February 28. The conflict, which began with the killing of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and senior military commanders, has stalled into a stalemate. However, the diplomatic and military temperature is rising again. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi warned on Sunday that the U.S. and Israel have “unfinished jobs,” challenging Washington to “try your luck again.” His comments followed a statement by Major General Ali Abdollahi, chief of staff of Iran’s armed forces, who warned against further “miscalculation,” asserting that Tehran’s resolve remains firm despite months of U.S. attacks.
The rhetoric from Tehran suggests a shift toward a more offensive military doctrine. Hossein Mohebbi, spokesperson for the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), stated that the group has prepared for a “long-term war” and possesses new weapons ready to be unleashed on targets beyond the region. Iranian officials have floated options that include cutting undersea internet cables, striking AI data centers, and attacking regional oil and gas facilities. “The world will be amazed,” Mohebbi said, emphasizing that the next round of hostilities would be fought on a “much wider battlefield.” This posture is viewed by analysts as a bid to deter President Donald Trump from restarting the conflict, though there is a risk that these threats are interpreted in Washington as provocation rather than deterrent.
While Iran signals readiness for escalation, the United States is in a period of internal debate. White House advisers have met to discuss options, and although Trump has publicly stated he will not take new actions before the November 3 midterm elections, officials indicate this stance is not definitive. The U.S. military has developed new strike plans, including the potential use of the GBU-43/B Massive Ordnance Air Blast Bomb (MOAB) to target Iranian energy infrastructure and nuclear sites. In a related security move, the U.S. moved all long-range bombers stationed in the United Kingdom back to American home bases earlier this month, following the arrest of individuals in Britain on suspicion of an Iranian plot to target the airbase.
Amid these threats, diplomatic channels remain open, albeit tense. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov visited Tehran on Monday for the first time since the war began, aiming to avert a return to “large-scale war.” Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baqaei noted that the sides would discuss regional and international developments. Iran’s proposal for a seven-day ceasefire, presented in late September, calls for the end of the U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports, the lifting of oil sanctions, and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. President Trump rejected the proposal, but Araghchi insists it remains on the table, stating that if U.S. conditions are met, the Strait would reopen on the sixth day, with negotiations beginning on the seventh.
As Iran seeks to preserve its leverage, the regional landscape is shifting. Qatari Deputy Prime Minister Sheikh Saoud confirmed that Doha is preparing to announce a new regional defense partnership with several Middle Eastern countries. Citing the success of recent U.S.-Gulf cooperation in fending off missile strikes, Saoud indicated that this agreement aims to bolster collective security. Meanwhile, the conflict has spilled over into Yemen, where Iran-backed Houthi rebels have intensified attacks on Saudi Arabia. On Monday, Houthis fired ballistic missiles at the al-Alam military camp in Shabwa province, killing at least 20 soldiers and wounding dozens. These strikes follow weeks of attacks on Saudi civilian infrastructure, including airports, which have killed more than 20 people and disrupted travel.
The economic impact of the conflict is palpable. Oil prices, which hit nearly $110 a barrel for Brent crude in mid-October, saw a slight dip late last week as President Trump signed an executive order holding new U.S. sanctions against Russia. The move, intended to ease U.S. fuel prices ahead of the midterms, drew disappointment from Ukraine but reflects the administration’s focus on domestic economic stability. Despite this, the risk to global supply chains remains high. The U.K. Maritime Trade Operations center reported that October has been the worst month for attacks on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz since the war began, with a recent incident involving a tugboat struck by two unknown projectiles off the UAE coast.
Democratic Senators have also weighed in on the conflict’s cost. In a letter to U.S. Central Command, led by Senator Elizabeth Warren, five Democrats demanded the Pentagon reveal the “true cost” of the war, arguing that the American public deserves to know the full extent of damage to U.S. bases and the timeline for repairs. The senators characterized the conflict as “unauthorized,” a designation that highlights the political friction within Washington as the administration navigates military options against a backdrop of economic uncertainty and domestic political pressure.
Back in Tehran, the anxiety is personal. Ordinary Iranians, burdened by months of conflict, are bracing for a potential resumption of bombing. “Every single day and every night, we’re waiting for the bombing to start again,” one resident told CNN. As the Kingdom Centre in Riyadh remains empty of office workers and the Strait of Hormuz stays closed, the region stands at a precipice. The coming days will likely define whether diplomatic efforts by Russia and Qatar can hold back the tide, or whether the “unfinished jobs” warned of by Iranian officials will lead to a new and more destructive chapter in the war.
