The political significance of this shift lies not only in the change of leadership but in the ideological trajectory of Europe’s third-largest economy. Meloni’s coalition, which includes former Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi’s center-right Forza Italia (8% of the vote) and Matteo Salvini’s League (9% of the vote), represents a consolidation of the right after a period of profound instability. The center-left Democratic Party, having received 19% of the vote, conceded defeat, ending its hold on power. For Meloni, whose party remained in opposition throughout the tenure of technocratic Prime Minister Mario Draghi, the election offers a mandate to pursue policies that her coalition allies, who were part of the previous government, had supported in a more moderate context. This “outsider” status, maintained by refusing to back Draghi’s unity government during the cost-of-living crisis, has been cited by observers as a key factor in her popularity among voters fatigued by seven governments in 11 years.
Central to Meloni’s political identity is a platform defined by what Rosa Balfour, director of the Carnegie Europe think tank, described as “ultraconservative values, anti-immigration and nationalism.” Meloni has advocated for naval blockades to prevent unauthorized migration from Africa and has expressed deep concern over Italy’s chronically low birthrate. Her rhetoric has included references to a left-wing plot to “finance the invasion to replace Italians with immigrants,” a narrative aligned with the “great replacement” conspiracy theory. While Meloni has rejected accusations that her party harbors lingering fascist tendencies, comparing FdI to the United Kingdom’s center-right Conservative Party, critics argue the party’s historical roots remain a point of contention. Balfour told BBC News that while Forza Italia and the League are populist right-wing, Brothers of Italy is “clearly a far-right party that has not given up on its post-fascist roots.”
The historical context of this political transition is inescapable. The FdI can trace its lineage to the Italian Social Movement (MSI), a party founded by supporters of Benito Mussolini after the war. The party is headquartered at the same Rome address used by the MSI in 1946, and its symbol is the tricolour flame, reportedly representing the eternal flame on Mussolini’s tomb. The FdI has fielded candidates who are descendants of Mussolini, including his granddaughter Rachele, and its founder, Ignazio La Russa, is the son of a Mussolini associate. Meloni, who joined the MSI’s youth wing as a teenager in Rome’s Garbatella district and was an avowed admirer of Mussolini at the time, has worked to moderate the party’s image. However, the timing of her expected swearing-in—precisely 100 years after the March on Rome in 1922, the event that established Mussolini’s fascist rule—has drawn sharp criticism. Political scientists describe the party as “post-fascist,” and many argue that its policy positions, including anti-abortion stances and fierce opposition to progressive social ideologies, align more closely with the right-wing of the American Republican Party than with traditional European conservatism.
The institutional implications of Meloni’s rise extend beyond domestic policy. Her Eurosceptic views and alignment with figures such as Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán have raised questions about the direction of the European Union. Orbán’s political director, Balázs Orbán, congratulated Meloni and shared images of her shaking hands with the Hungarian leader. Similarly, French far-right figure Marine Le Pen, who staged a strong challenge in April’s presidential elections, stated that the Italian people had “decided to take its destiny in hand by electing a patriotic and sovereignist government.” These international reactions highlight the growing influence of nationalist movements across the continent. Conversely, the decline of Meloni’s coalition partners underscores the volatility of the right-wing vote; Salvini’s League saw its support drop from over 17% in 2018 to about 9%, while Berlusconi’s Forza Italia, a former governing party, secured 8%.
Despite the clarity of the electoral results, uncertainty remains regarding the specific implementation of Meloni’s platform. Critics warn that her hardline views on immigration and the preservation of the “Christian family” could threaten civil rights and shift the center of political discourse in Italy toward far-right perspectives. Meloni, at a rally early Monday, addressed her supporters with a sense of urgency: “We must remember that we are not at the end point, we are at the starting point. It is from tomorrow that we must prove our worth,” according to a Reuters translation. As she prepares to assume office, the focus will turn to how her government navigates the tension between her nationalist agenda and the constraints of European integration, a dynamic that will likely define her tenure and the broader trajectory of right-wing politics in Europe.
