Andrius Kubilius, the European Commissioner for Defence and Space, outlined the strategy during a press conference at the European Commission. He explained that the short-term priority is to ensure refineries can continue operating by leveraging military resources, a figure for which specific numbers have not been publicly released. “How do we ensure that in the short term we are helping refineries, so that they, in turn, help us by maintaining our security, containing prices, and ensuring that our economies can continue to function?” Kubilius asked. He noted that the European Union must guarantee sufficient aviation fuel in peacetime while also establishing a system capable of rapidly scaling up production and securing adequate reserves during a military crisis.
Kubilius stated that he plans to discuss this issue with the North Atlantic Council, the NATO Council, and NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte. While the commissioner noted that military fuel needs in peacetime are relatively small, accounting for approximately 8% of total demand, he warned that this share could increase significantly during a crisis. The EU has a specific obligation to fuel 100,000 NATO troops in the event of a military emergency, a logistical requirement that underscores the strategic importance of secure refining capacity.
This security-focused approach complements broader policy warnings from the European Commission regarding structural vulnerabilities. Energy Commissioner Dan Jørgensen has described the loss of refining capacity as a vulnerability that Europe can no longer ignore. He characterized the prolonged war in the Middle East as a “wake-up call,” urging the EU to ensure adequate refining capacity within its borders. The Commission has previously asserted that while there is currently no outright deficit in diesel and jet fuel across EU member states, inventory levels remain limited, leaving little margin for sudden supply shocks.
Energy experts are reinforcing these institutional concerns with data-driven analysis. Osama Rizvi, an energy expert and analyst, argues that high fuel prices have become a “structural feature” of the current market rather than a temporary anomaly. He warns that it may take months for global supplies to recover and for prices to stabilize. Rizvi advocates for a “refinery revolution,” suggesting that the world needs more refineries spread “across the globe” to reduce vulnerability during geopolitical crises. His assessment aligns with the Commission’s view that reliance on a few concentrated hubs creates systemic risk.
The distinction between immediate tactical responses and long-term strategic planning is evident in these developments. The proposal to use military reserves is a short-term measure aimed at physical protection of existing assets. In contrast, the call for a “refinery revolution” addresses the fundamental issue of geographic concentration and capacity expansion. Until new facilities are built and operational, the EU relies on the resilience of current infrastructure, which is now viewed as a critical component of national and alliance defense.
The interplay between civilian energy markets and military logistics is becoming increasingly pronounced. By linking fuel security to defense capabilities, EU officials are signaling that energy stability is no longer solely an economic or environmental issue but a core component of security policy. The next steps involve formal discussions with NATO leadership to coordinate these protective measures, alongside continued monitoring of fuel inventories to prevent the “limited” stock levels from becoming actual shortages.
