The vote is expected to be closely contested. Of the court’s 11 seats, only nine members are anticipated to cast ballots. Standard procedural rules bar a magistrate from voting on a matter in which they are the direct target, sidelining Moraes. Additionally, Justice Dias Toffoli has recused himself due to conflicts of interest related to Banco Master. However, Moraes has indicated he intends to request the right to vote, arguing that if Mendonça—a party to the dispute—is permitted to participate, he should be as well. Unconfirmed reports suggest that six votes are effectively locked in, split evenly between those supporting and opposing the inquiry, leaving the ballots of President Fachin and Justice Cármen Lúcia as the likely deciding factors.
The investigation stems from an iPhone seized from Vorcaro by federal police in November 2025, shortly after the Central Bank placed Banco Master into liquidation. On September 1, Mendonça lifted the secrecy order on the file, releasing a 218-page report that contradicts previous official statements from the court denying any communication between Moraes and the banker. The unsealed material logs at least six in-person meetings between the two men in 2024 and 2025, including two visits to Moraes’s Brasília residence in April 2025, based on messages Vorcaro sent to his girlfriend.
Financial documents reveal a substantial services agreement signed in January 2024 between Vorcaro’s bank and the law firm of Viviane Barci de Moraes, Justice Moraes’s wife. Police valued the three-year contract at approximately R$131.3 million, though some outlets cite a figure closer to R$129 million. Metadata from the contract’s final draft indicates it was edited by an account under Moraes’s name; his wife’s firm stated this was done at the request of compliance staff to screen for conflicts of interest. Approximately R$80 million was paid out before the arrangement ceased upon Vorcaro’s arrest. A separate, unsigned draft for a R$50 million agreement, which proposed payment in shares of private aircraft rather than cash, also surfaced, though the law firm denies this second contract was ever executed.
Further scrutiny has focused on a legal conference in London in April 2024, sponsored by Banco Master. The event drew roughly 30 Brazilian officials, including Moraes, then-Justice Toffoli, and Prosecutor-General Paulo Gonet. Vorcaro personally funded a whisky tasting at a private club in Mayfair, costing approximately $640,000. During a closed-door STF session, Moraes acknowledged the gathering, stating, “Afterward we all went to a pub together and drank Macallan.”
The unsealing of these records has intensified internal power struggles within the court. Moraes previously attempted to use an investigation he had overseen since 2019—originally concerning threats against the judiciary—to allege that Mendonça had abused his authority. In response, Mendonça acted on a request from a political party to remove federal police director-general Andrei Rodrigues and intelligence chief Leandro Almada from their posts. Justice Flávio Dino subsequently reinstated both officials. The outcome of Tuesday’s vote will determine whether the STF formally opens a probe into the conduct of a sitting justice, a move that would set a significant precedent for judicial accountability in Brazil.
