The election is widely viewed as a dress rehearsal for the national general election scheduled for next year. As the last major poll before that national contest, the results in Andalusia offer a clear read on public sentiment regarding Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez and his administration. The PP has framed the vote as a referendum on the national government, leveraging a series of corruption allegations engulfing the prime minister’s inner circle and party. Alberto Núñez Feijóo, the PP’s national leader, has urged voters to choose between what he described as the “conspiracy that Sánchez led and Montero watched over” and the incumbent regional administration.
Incumbent regional president Juan Manuel Moreno Bonilla is on course to nearly replicate his 2022 result, when the PP won 58 of the 109 seats in the regional parliament. Polls suggest he is again on track to secure an absolute majority. This outcome is politically significant because it would allow Moreno to govern without relying on the far-right Vox party. Vox, which entered the regional parliament in 2018 with 14 seats, is forecast to gain one or two additional seats. While Vox has sought to drag the PP further to the right in other regional coalitions by advocating for “national priority” policies regarding housing and public services, Moreno has dismissed such demands as “empty slogans,” confident that his party’s strength renders such alliances unnecessary.
For the PSOE, the political cost of national scandals is being felt acutely in Andalusia. María Jesús Montero, the party’s regional candidate and former deputy prime minister, has faced intense scrutiny following her earlier characterization of the deaths of two Guardia Civil officers as a “workplace accident.” Although she corrected the statement to say the officers died “in the line of duty,” the gaffe has fueled criticism from the PP, with Moreno referring to her as “the lady from the past” and calling for the need to “bury bad politics.” The PSOE, which governed the region for nearly four decades, looks set to drop from 30 seats to 28, a result that represents its lowest point in the autonomous community.
Healthcare crisis and political vulnerability
The campaign has also been dominated by domestic governance issues, particularly in healthcare, which 42.2% of Andalusian voters identify as the region’s most pressing problem. The PP’s position has been complicated by a cancer-screening scandal that resurfaced during the campaign. The regional government admitted that more than 2,300 women were not informed of inconclusive mammogram results, leading to missed follow-up tests and treatments. The administrative failure triggered widespread anger and protests, culminating in the resignation of the regional health minister.
Moreno has insisted that no one died as a direct result of this failure, a claim that has been challenged by local campaigners. Ángela Claverol, president of the breast cancer support association Amama Sevilla, stated that at least six women had died due to the failure to communicate screening results. This dispute highlights the tension between the incumbent administration’s record and the opposition’s narrative of systemic mismanagement. While the PP seeks to capitalize on the PSOE’s national weaknesses, it must navigate its own regional controversies that could undermine its appeal to voters concerned with public health infrastructure.
The election results will provide the clearest indication yet of whether the far-right Vox party is beginning to peak in popularity or continues to erode the traditional two-party system in Spain. If the PP secures a comfortable majority, it may reduce the leverage Vox holds in national politics, potentially stabilizing the conservative bloc without the need for ideologically contentious coalition partners. Conversely, a closer result could keep Vox at the center of Andalusian governance, forcing the PP to accommodate its policy demands on immigration and public services.
As the ballots are counted, the focus will shift to the implications for the national election. The ability of the PP to translate its Andalusian strength into a national majority will depend on whether the scandals surrounding the Sánchez government continue to resonate with voters beyond the southern region. The outcome in Andalusia will not only determine the regional leadership for the next four years but will also set the tone for the broader political realignment expected in Spain next year.
