Geopolitics

Gaza Ceasefire Stalls as Netanyahu and Kushner Agree on US-Supervised Disarmament

The central impasse remains the order of operations. Netanyahu reiterated that the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) will not withdraw from the approximately 60% of the Gaza Strip currently under Israeli control until Hamas is fully disarmed. He requested that a US general supervise the group’s handover of weapons, a proposal that aligns with the position held by the Board of Peace. Conversely, Hamas insists that Israel must first halt its attacks and withdraw to the so-called “yellow line” dividing the territory before any implementation of the disarmament timeline can begin.

This disagreement casts a shadow over the US-backed 15-point roadmap, which Netanyahu forcefully rejected earlier in the week. While Hamas has stated its agreement to the roadmap, which includes provisions for its own disarmament, the group is urging mediators and the Board of Peace to compel Israel to sign on. A Hamas official, speaking on condition of anonymity, noted that the group is committed and waiting for mediators to start a 14-day negotiation period to work out an implementation timetable, a process that requires approval from all parties. However, the Hamas leader, Khalil al-Hayya, who met with Kushner in Egypt just a day prior to the Israel talks, demanded that Israel cease its strikes and withdraw to the yellow line before implementation begins. The yellow line, which has never been precisely defined, has already been moved beyond by Israeli forces according to recent reports.

The diplomatic friction is compounded by continued military activity. Just two days after US negotiators reportedly asked Israel to draw down attacks, deadly airstrikes struck the Gaza Strip on Wednesday, killing at least 10 people in two separate strikes, according to local hospitals and the Palestinian Red Crescent. The Israeli military stated that one strike in the Nuseirat refugee camp targeted a Hamas commander who participated in the October 7, 2023, attack, while a second strike in the Tuffah area of Gaza City hit four militants at a police station. The Hamas-run Interior Ministry, however, said the police station strike killed eight police officers, two of whom were women, and a 13-year-old girl. Additionally, Israeli troops crossed the ceasefire line in southern Gaza on Wednesday to detain a Hamas police colonel.

The White House has not immediately commented on the specific details of the agreement regarding US military supervision of disarmament, though a Board of Peace official described the Monday meeting as “lengthy, in depth and very productive.” The official stated, “We agreed with the PM on a path forward. The Israelis are going to give this a chance. Now it’s up to Hamas to show if it truly intends to comply.” Meanwhile, Netanyahu’s office confirmed the establishment of the working groups, emphasizing that both Israel and the Board of Peace are determined that disarmament must be “prompt and completed before any reconstruction happens in Gaza.”

The timing of these negotiations is politically charged for Netanyahu, who faces national elections later this year and struggles in the polls. Gaza remains a highly sensitive issue, with his role in the events leading up to the October 7 attack viewed as a vulnerability by critics. Despite the diplomatic efforts, the ground reality remains tense. Israel, which must gradually withdraw under the roadmap, continues to occupy the majority of the strip, and Netanyahu has previously threatened to take over more territory. For now, the sequence of events—whether disarmament precedes withdrawal or withdrawal enables disarmament—remains the critical barrier to any lasting peace, leaving the future of the 15-point plan in limbo as both sides dig in on their respective prerequisites.

Sarah Miller

Sarah Miller writes about global affairs, foreign policy, and major diplomatic developments. She follows political relationships between countries, regional tensions, international negotiations, and the broader consequences of geopolitical decisions. Sarah combines timely reporting with background research to help readers understand not only what has happened, but also the developments shaping the story.

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