The first round results reveal a broader structural shift in Brazilian politics favoring the conservative bloc. The Liberal Party (PL), led by Bolsonaro, secured the largest delegations in both the Chamber of Deputies and the Senate, while also winning five state governorships. This parliamentary strength provides the right with significant leverage in governance, regardless of the presidential outcome. Political scientists noted that despite polls frequently favoring Lula’s Workers’ Party (PT) during much of the campaign, a late surge in anti-PT sentiment and consumer discontent drove voters toward the right, even amid conditions of low inflation and low unemployment.
A Proxy Rematch
The upcoming runoff is widely viewed as a de facto rematch of the 2022 election, which Lula won narrowly against Jair Bolsonaro. However, the political landscape has changed dramatically. Jair Bolsonaro is currently under house arrest, serving a 27-year prison sentence after the Federal Supreme Court convicted him of plotting a coup and leading a criminal organization responsible for the January 2023 riots. During those events, supporters stormed and vandalized the headquarters of Brazil’s three branches of government in an attempt to overturn the 2022 election results. Hundreds of participants were subsequently convicted, and the incident remains a central point of contention in the current campaign.
Flávio Bolsonaro, the eldest son of the former president, is campaigning on a platform that continues his father’s policies. Shannon K. O’Neil, a senior vice president of studies at the Council on Foreign Relations, noted that there is “no daylight between himself and his father,” describing the campaign as one driven by familial relations rather than distinct policy proposals. A core component of Bolsonaro’s platform is the issuance of an amnesty or pardon for his father and others convicted of involvement in the 2023 riots. He has also proposed a twelve-point security plan that includes designating criminal groups as narcoterrorist organizations and building maximum-security prisons modeled on those in El Salvador. Oliver Stuenkel, an associate professor of international relations at the Getulio Vargas Foundation, observed that while such measures may resonate intuitively with voters concerned about security, they are unlikely to address the root causes of insecurity in a meaningful way.
In response, Lula framed the runoff as a choice between “democracy and barbarism,” warning voters against the “dark past” associated with his opponent. The 80-year-old incumbent, who previously served two terms from 2003 to 2011, emphasized his track record of lifting millions out of poverty and his commitment to Brazil’s sovereignty. His campaign promises to continue modest economic improvements and environmental initiatives, with a renewed focus on reducing inequality and expanding geopolitical partnerships. Lula has also stressed the need to defend Brazil against foreign interference, specifically citing warnings against “meddling” by Washington.
The runoff will determine the leadership of Latin America’s largest democracy and economy at a critical juncture. The winner must navigate complex relations with the United States and China, Brazil’s two largest trading partners, while managing domestic challenges such as organized crime and corruption. Recent scandals, including the arrest of a prominent banker in a multibillion-dollar fraud case and the detention of the head of Rio de Janeiro’s state assembly for links to the Red Command criminal group, have heightened public concern over institutional integrity. With third, fourth, and fifth-place finishers all being right-wing candidates, Bolsonaro has a natural pool of voters to draw from, making the October 25 vote likely to be an extremely tight contest.
