The anticipated relief for petrol drivers stems from a predicted gross price gain of around R2.00 per litre. However, this benefit is partially offset by a reduction in the fuel levy relief applied by the National Treasury. The relief for petrol is being reduced to R1.00 per litre, effectively adding R0.50 back to the pump price. Consequently, the net change for petrol is projected to be a decrease of roughly R1.50 per litre. In contrast, diesel drivers face a more challenging outlook. The relief for diesel is being cut to R1.50 per litre, meaning R1.50 is added back to the price. With diesel expected to drop by only two cents in the base price, the net effect will likely be an increase in the final price at the pump.
These figures are not yet final and remain subject to change until the official adjustment date. The primary drivers of local fuel prices are the global price of crude oil and the performance of the South African Rand against the US Dollar. Currently, global oil prices have remained above the $100 per mark for several months, significantly higher than the historical “normal” range of $70 per barrel, a situation attributed in part to the ongoing conflict between the US and Iran. The interplay between these elevated global costs and currency exchange rates will determine the final adjustments.
The official price adjustment will take place on the first Wednesday of the month, which falls on Wednesday, 2 December. Until that date, the CEF and DMPR will continue to publish daily predictions, allowing consumers to monitor the trajectory of fuel costs. The final prices will reflect the average of the relevant economic indicators up to the adjustment date, meaning the current forecast could shift if global oil prices or the Rand’s value change significantly over the remainder of November.
