Vox leader Santiago Abascal described the election announcement as “excellent news,” framing the contest as “Spain’s last chance to be Spain again.” The party’s optimism is grounded in recent polling data. While the PP is projected to lead with approximately 33% of the vote, Vox is tracking at around 18%. In the previous 2023 election, Vox secured 33 of the 350 seats in Congress; current projections suggest the party could double that figure. Under the PP’s potential coalition leadership, Vox would likely be part of a comfortable majority, granting it substantial leverage to demand the inclusion of key agenda items as a condition for partnership.
Vox’s platform includes the deportation of undocumented migrants, a preference for Spanish nationals in benefit distribution, and a reduction of EU health and safety regulations in the agricultural sector. The party has also vowed to roll back support for gender equality and LGBTQ+ rights. While Vox spokesperson José Antonio Fúster declined to specify which ministries the party is targeting, describing such details as premature, analysts expect Vox to press for portfolios related to agriculture, domestic policy, immigration, and industry. Given the party’s focus on cultural and social issues, portfolios such as culture and education are also considered likely targets.
The political landscape has been sharpened by the migrant crisis in the North African enclave of Ceuta, where more than 70,000 migrants crossed the border in July. Although most have since returned to Morocco, thousands remain in the enclave, living in tent encampments. The crisis has fueled domestic discontent and provided Vox with a prominent platform. Abascal recently branded Sánchez a “traitor” in parliament, accusing the prime minister of being blackmailed by Morocco. Sánchez responded by stating, “I will be a dog, but I have no master.” Declassified documents released by the government indicated that the National Intelligence Center had issued warnings to the government regarding the mass crossing shortly before it occurred.
The prospect of a PP-Vox government also has implications for Spain’s foreign policy, particularly concerning the enclave of Gibraltar. Both the PP and Vox oppose the UK-EU treaty on Gibraltar, which was signed in July and has applied provisionally since July 15. The agreement integrates the Rock into Schengen border-check rules and creates a customs union. PP leader Alberto Nuñez Feijoo has criticized the deal, calling it a “fraud” in some contexts while also stating in other remarks that its entry into force was “good news” that needs to be completed. Vox has taken a harder line, with party sources describing the agreement as “illegal, illegitimate and unjust” and demanding the “total reintegration” of Gibraltar under Spanish sovereignty. The European Parliament is scheduled to vote on the treaty on December 14, shortly after the Spanish election.
Currently, no national manifestos have been finalized, so the best indicator of a potential PP-Vox government’s priorities is the four regional pacts the PP has already signed with Vox in Extremadura, Aragon, Castilla y Leon, and Andalucia. These agreements suggest a focus on housing, green energy, and border security. As the election approaches, Vox is emphasizing that policy shaping is being prioritized ahead of institutional power, arguing that the specific ministries negotiated are the “least important” aspect of the partnership. The party’s strong position in the polls suggests it will be a decisive factor in determining the next government’s direction.
