The White House estimates that truck drivers could save more than $100 per fueling under the new directive. However, data released by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) on October 5 showed the national average on-highway diesel price had dropped 18 cents to $6.199 per gallon, while gas prices fell 11 cents to $4.354. Despite this recent dip, diesel prices remain $2.488 higher than a year ago. In specific regions, the impact is more pronounced; diesel hit a record $6.53 per gallon in the Midwest the week of September 28, nearly double the $3.39 average recorded in the first week of January 2026. In California, prices at Los Angeles-area fuel stations reached $8.38 per gallon.
Industry representatives caution that the executive order is not a long-term solution. Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, stated that while the order sounds significant, most drivers may not benefit because states enforce their own rules, the fuel is not truly tax-free in all jurisdictions, and the measure does not add a single gallon to the national supply. Tom Kloza, senior energy and market adviser at Gulf Oil, agreed that while the move provides some relief, it fails to address the major supply problems the U.S. is currently facing.
For small business owners, the cost shock is immediate. Ryan Schmuhl, who founded Schmuhl Brothers Inc. in Kansas City in 1995, noted that a 360-mile round trip that cost approximately $90 in diesel in 2000 now costs about $490. With profit margins in trucking estimated between 1% and 5%, operators like Schmuhl Brothers, which supports 75 employees, face the risk of insolvency if costs continue to rise. “It’d be pretty hard to put something like $6,000 cash in my pocket to get fuel done for the week,” Schmuhl said.
The Owner-Operator Independent Drivers Association (OOIDA), which represents over 150,000 owner-operators and small-fleet owners, highlighted that every $1 increase per gallon in fuel costs adds approximately $400 to a driver’s weekly expenses. Todd Spencer, president and CEO of OOIDA, warned that sustained high prices will put many truck drivers out of business. “Roughly 70% of domestic freight moves exclusively by truck, and the cost of fuel ultimately gets passed on,” Spencer said. He added that while the wider use of red-dyed diesel may provide minimal relief, market stability is essential for long-term cost reduction.
Government agencies are also feeling the strain. The Minnesota Department of Transportation operates 850 diesel-powered plow trucks, consuming between 75,000 and 80,000 gallons of diesel per month in warmer months, a figure that jumps to 150,000 to 160,000 gallons during winter snow and ice removal operations. Maintenance engineer Jed Falgren stated that the department is exploring ways to maximize fuel economy and reduce driving, but acknowledged there are limits to how much efficiency can be gained from existing technology.
As the U.S. approaches midterm elections, pressure is mounting to address consumer concerns over fuel costs. While a viral online video previously suggested a nationwide trucker strike for October 1, no union or trade group backed the initiative, and no such strike occurred. The immediate commercial consequence of high diesel prices is the potential for further inflation, as logistics costs are passed through the supply chain to consumers. The next key data release from the EIA will be critical in determining whether the executive order correlates with a sustained drop in national fuel prices or if supply constraints continue to dominate market dynamics.
