This figure slightly exceeds the government’s target of keeping inflation around 4.5% for the year. The 4.52% average for the first three quarters is the highest recorded for the same period since 2016, up from a 3.27% increase in the same period last year. NSO Director Nguyen Thi Huong stated that pressure from input costs, energy price fluctuations, and inflation risks remains a challenge for economic management. She noted that fuel prices are being managed proactively in line with global trends and domestic supply and demand, but factors driving overall price levels have yet to subside.
The primary driver of inflationary pressure was the food and catering services group, which increased 4.72% year-on-year, contributing 1.69 percentage points to the overall CPI rise. This was the largest contribution among the 11 major consumer groups. Within this category, pork prices climbed 4.46%, poultry rose 3.93%, and food services outside the home jumped 7.14%, driven by higher input costs and increased consumer demand. Because food constitutes a significant share of household spending, these fluctuations directly impact consumer living costs.
The housing, electricity, water, fuel, and construction materials group also exerted substantial upward pressure, rising 6.68% year-on-year and adding 1.52 percentage points to the CPI. Specific items within this group saw sharp increases, with housing maintenance materials surging 13.07%, rents rising 4.91%, and household electricity prices increasing 4.35%. These trends align with earlier data from August, where the same group recorded a 6.71% year-on-year increase, and July, where it rose 6.72% for the first seven months, indicating sustained pressure in the energy and construction sectors.
Recent monthly data shows volatility in fuel prices affecting the broader index. In August, the transport group posted the sharpest increase at 4.09% year-on-year, driven by a 22.15% jump in diesel prices and a 9.53% rise in petrol. Conversely, in July, the CPI edged down 0.12% month-on-month as petrol prices fell 4.35% and diesel dropped 9.18%, following global fuel price movements. Despite these monthly fluctuations, core inflation, which excludes volatile items, rose 4.55% year-on-year in August and averaged 4.24% for the first eight months. Officials indicate that while the supply of essential goods remains broadly ensured, the structure of price hikes is concentrated in essential items rather than temporary goods, posing continued risks for business production activities and consumer budgets.
Market surveys cited in the source material project Vietnam’s 2026 GDP growth at 7.3% and full-year CPI at 4.8%, though these are forecasts rather than confirmed outcomes. The NSO emphasized that while market stability is being maintained through supply management, the persistence of high input costs and energy volatility requires continued flexible policy responses to meet annual targets.
