The dispute centers on the Esqueibo region, which comprises two-thirds of Guyana’s territory and is rich in oil and minerals. Venezuela’s acting President, Delcy Rodriguez, appeared before the ICJ in The Hague on May 11, 2026, to reject the court’s jurisdiction. Rodriguez stated that Venezuela would be “unable to comply” with the judgment regardless of the outcome, advocating instead for a resolution through direct negotiations based on its interpretation of the 1966 Geneva Agreement. In contrast, Guyana has pledged to abide by the court’s decision.
The geopolitical landscape has shifted due to new US commercial interests. The recent oil deal involves Chevron in Guyana and grants Washington a stake in Venezuelan oil, coinciding with reports that Venezuela is weighing withdrawal from OPEC with US involvement. International relations expert Mark Kirton noted that while the US might push for negotiations post-judgment, Brazil, as South America’s largest economic and military power, is likely to oppose externally influenced border redraws. Kirton argued that Brazil’s consistent stance on sovereignty makes it unlikely to support any process that could set a precedent for challenging existing borders, including its own.
Another expert, Panzarelli, described Lula’s re-election as positive for a peaceful resolution, asserting that it constrains the expansion of US influence in the region. However, the immediate expectation remains that Brazil will uphold the ICJ’s authority over the 1899 Arbitral Tribunal award, which Venezuela has refused to recognize. The ICJ had previously ruled that it had jurisdiction to hear the substantive case, a position Venezuela continues to dispute.
The next significant development will be the delivery of the ICJ’s substantive judgment in the coming months, which will determine the legal validity of the current border and test the diplomatic alignment between Brazil and the United States regarding sovereignty and international law.
