France exemplifies this transformation, with Marine Le Pen’s National Rally (RN) emerging as a dominant force. A survey from early October indicated that Le Pen would likely secure between 31% and 36% of first-round votes in a national election, leading her nearest rival by at least 11 percentage points. France’s next presidential election is scheduled for April. Le Pen’s success is attributed to a long-term strategy of “dédiabolisation” or de-demonization, which has helped the party shed the extremist reputation associated with its founder, Jean-Marie Le Pen, and present itself as a viable governing alternative.
This rise has consigned France’s traditional conservative party, Les Républicains, to near irrelevance, with national support hovering around 9% according to recent polling. Stéphane Azihari, a French essayist for Le Figaro, noted that Le Pen has successfully appealed to voters who feel abandoned by both the traditional right and left. “She has simultaneously filled the void left by a right wing that’s greatly disappointed voters on immigration and security, while also capturing working-class voters from the left,” Azihari stated. He identified the fear of non-European immigration, particularly Muslim immigration, as the primary driver of RN voting. A 2024 poll found that 77% of National Rally voters considered immigration an important factor in their voting decision.
Political debate in France has increasingly centered on perceptions of immigration and Islam as threats, a trend reinforced by security concerns following the 2015 attacks in Paris. Research published by the Brookings Institution in 2020 found that 73% of RN voters believed Islam was incompatible with French society. Azihari argued that the center’s inability to effectively address security and immigration concerns explains much of the National Rally’s progression. President Emmanuel Macron, who is ineligible to seek a third consecutive term in 2027, has backed more restrictive immigration measures, yet these actions have not diminished the National Rally’s appeal.
The phenomenon is not limited to France. According to a survey of party support across 31 European nations from earlier this year, almost a quarter of voters now support far-right parties. These parties are reshaping the political establishment, often alienating potential allies on the nationalist right due to ideological differences. For instance, the German Alternative for Germany (AfD) has faced friction with other European right-wing groups; Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni cited fundamental differences with the AfD regarding Russia’s war on Ukraine, and France’s National Rally broke ties with the AfD in 2024 after a leading AfD candidate made remarks appearing to downplay Nazi crimes.
Established European parties now face a strategic dilemma: embrace tougher positions on immigration and national identity and potentially cooperate with populist rivals, or risk losing further voters. Even if these populist parties do not win control of governments, their influence is already being felt, raising questions about how far to the right they will pull other parties that have long rejected their legitimacy.
