The election result places Arab parties in a critical “kingmaker” position, although both Netanyahu and Eisenkot have historically ruled out governing with them. Eisenkot has recently softened his stance, suggesting he is open to an alliance with the two Arab-led formations, The Joint List and Ra’am, under specific conditions. Such a coalition would yield a comfortable majority of 67 seats. However, this scenario faces significant hurdles, as Eisenkot has taken a hard line on Iran and Hamas and opposes Palestinian statehood, positions that differ from some Arab parties who have refused to designate Hamas as a terrorist organization.
Israeli President Isaac Herzog will now initiate the government formation process. Protocol dictates that Herzog will first invite Netanyahu, leader of the largest party, to attempt to form a government within 42 days. If Netanyahu fails, the mandate passes to the leader of the second-largest party, who receives 28 days. A third candidate is granted 14 days if the previous attempts fail. Should no government be formed within these deadlines, fresh elections will be called. Netanyahu would remain caretaker Prime Minister during this interim period, retaining authority over security decisions.
Three primary scenarios are being considered by political analysts. The first is an Eisenkot-led coalition backed by Arab parties. The second is a national unity government involving both Netanyahu and Eisenkot, a prospect Eisenkot has repeatedly rejected, citing security failures surrounding the October 7, 2023, Hamas attack and accusations of democratic erosion. The third option involves Netanyahu attempting to lure defectors from the opposition bloc, such as right-wing leaders Naftali Bennett or Avigdor Lieberman, to secure a majority. Netanyahu’s far-right and ultra-Orthodox allies have remained fiercely loyal, limiting his flexibility.
The outcome has significant implications for international relations, particularly with the United States and India. US President Donald Trump has expressed support for Netanyahu but has indicated a preference for a broader government that is not dependent on right-wing figures like Itamar Ben-Gvir, which would allow for greater flexibility in pursuing peace plans in Gaza and normalization with Saudi Arabia. Currently, Netanyahu is described as “handcuffed” by his coalition partners. Meanwhile, India-Israel ties, characterized by a close personal rapport between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Netanyahu, have expanded beyond defense into technology and agriculture. A government change in Jerusalem could influence the trajectory of these strategic partnerships, as well as Israel’s ability to manage ongoing conflicts in Lebanon and potential escalations with Iran.
No immediate date for a final government announcement has been set, but the 42-day window for Netanyahu begins immediately. The political landscape remains volatile, with the possibility of new elections looming if coalition talks collapse. The next scheduled major political event will be the conclusion of Herzog’s consultations, which will determine whether a new cabinet is sworn in or the country returns to the polls.
