The migration surge has coincided with a divergence in property market performance. Cotality data shows that while property values in capital cities declined by 1.8 percent annually, regional dwellings rose by 5.6 percent over the same period. Liz Ritchie, CEO of the RAI, noted that relocation movements typically slow during the June quarter, making the sustained outflow particularly notable. “This tells us the appeal of country living remains incredibly strong all year round,” Ritchie said, adding that Australians are broadening their search beyond popular coastal towns to include inland communities.
Queensland’s Sunshine Coast remained the top destination for movers, with an inflow of 8.7 percent. Geelong, Lake Macquarie, Fraser Coast, and Moorabool rounded out the top five destinations. In regional Victoria, Central Goldfields recorded the highest annual internal migration growth, with inflows up 312 percent over the year. Kylie Allen, a CBA executive, observed that growth is also expanding into north Queensland markets such as Tablelands, Douglas, and Burdekin.
Specific analysis of Sydney’s population dynamics reveals a stark east-west divide. A net total of 33,282 people left Greater Sydney for other parts of the country last financial year, a higher figure than any other capital. KPMG analysis indicates that over 30,000 of these departures originated from eastern Sydney, including the northern beaches and inner west, while the decline in western Sydney was only about 2,800.
Housing affordability is cited as a primary driver of this displacement. Terry Rawnsley, an urban economist at KPMG, stated that high house prices are squeezing young families out of affluent eastern suburbs. In 2024-25, deaths outnumbered births in 42 suburbs of Greater Sydney, a trend Nick Parr, an honorary professor of demography at Macquarie University, expects to continue due to the ageing population. While some north-western suburbs like Box Hill-Nelson and Marsden Park-Shanes Park saw double-digit growth, more than 50 other suburbs, particularly in the east, experienced population declines or stagnation.
Regional centers continue to benefit from this influx of owner-occupiers seeking affordability. The data suggests that the migration pattern is not a temporary fluctuation but a structural shift, with capital-to-regional movers outnumbering reverse movements by 30 percent. As capital city property values remain under pressure, regional hubs are positioned to sustain population growth in the coming periods.
