The verified results show that Netanyahu’s bloc, led by the Likud party, secured 53 seats in Tuesday’s election. The main opposition bloc won 48 seats, while Arab-led parties captured the remaining 19 seats, marking a historic showing for this segment of the population. Although Netanyahu remains the incumbent prime minister, the loss of a majority means his continued tenure is no longer guaranteed by the arithmetic of the previous term. He must now rely on coalition partners or face a potential reshuffling of power.
“Now comes the truly hard part,” said Yair Lapid, a centrist politician, in a post on X. He urged patience, noting that despite the public silence, intense diplomatic activity was underway. The central political dilemma facing the opposition is whether to honor their campaign vows to unseat Netanyahu by partnering with Arab-led parties—a step that carries significant political sensitivity—or to abandon those pledges in favor of a potentially fractious unity government with Netanyahu.
The path forward is clouded by allegations of electoral irregularities. In the hours preceding the final announcement, Netanyahu and the Likud party amplified unsubstantiated claims that Arab-led parties had “stolen” the election, potentially with foreign assistance. Specific accusations pointed toward Qatar, a nation many Israelis view as a patron of Hamas, the Gaza-based militant group. Qatar has denied these allegations, labeling them “ridiculous and dangerous.”
These claims have drawn sharp rebuke from the opposition, who accuse Netanyahu of demonizing the Arab population, which constitutes 20% of Israel’s citizens. Critics note that Arab voter turnout was exceptionally high, driven in part by outrage over the policies of far-right allies in Netanyahu’s cabinet, such as National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir. Netanyahu’s party lost seats in this election, yet he has suggested that any coalition formed with Arab parties would be treasonous.
Official institutions have moved to mitigate the tension. Noam Sohlberg, the head of the election committee and a Supreme Court Justice, stated that “serious suspicions” of interference had been raised but could not be verified. In a letter to the Shin Bet security agency, Sohlberg requested an investigation into the claims. However, the election commission emphasized that the investigation was based on classified intelligence and did not alter the final results. Dean Livne, the acting director general of the commission, warned that media reports regarding the investigation were “entirely unfounded” and stressed that the integrity of the vote was not in question. The Shin Bet also issued a statement clarifying that its inquiry was not intended to cast aspersions on a community that exercised its democratic right to vote lawfully.
The procedural next steps are strictly defined by Israeli law. The results must be certified and submitted to President Isaac Herzog by next Wednesday. Herzog will then task an individual with forming the new government. This mandate is typically given to the leader of the party with the most votes—currently Netanyahu—or to whoever the party leaders collectively deem best suited to form a majority. If multiple attempts to form a government fail, Israel faces the prospect of another election early next year. Herzog has stated he will do everything in his power to avoid such a scenario.
Public opinion remains divided. In Tel Aviv, residents debated the merits of various coalition options, with some expressing traditional wariness toward Arab parties and others insisting that Israel must embrace them. “There are options for all of this, not like in the United States, where there are only two parties,” said Beny Engalrd, a Tel Aviv resident. In Jaffa, Miri Sklair argued for cooperation, stating that Arab parties represent a “legitimate population in the state of Israel.” Conversely, in Ramallah, Khair Abu Rjeileh expressed frustration, claiming that neither Eisenkot nor Netanyahu was willing to form an alliance with “Palestinian brothers inside Israel.” In Beirut, Naeem Salah predicted a unity government excluding Arab parties, citing deep-seated societal prejudices.
The political stakes extend beyond coalition arithmetic. If Netanyahu loses office, it would trigger a cascade of consequences he has sought to avoid, including accountability for yearslong corruption allegations and an inquiry into security failures preceding the Hamas-led attack on October 7, 2023. Gadi Eisenkot, the chief rival to Netanyahu, faces pressure from hundreds of Israelis who have rallied urging him to join forces with the Arab-led parties. This strategy was briefly employed in 2021, but its long-term stability remains uncertain.
Regardless of the coalition outcome, the new Knesset is expected to be sworn in on November 10. Once convened, the opposition bloc could potentially join with Arab parties to elect a new Knesset speaker, thereby gaining control over the parliamentary agenda. This maneuver could allow them to advance legislation before a formal government is established. As the Shabbat weekend begins, the political landscape remains fluid, with parties meeting in closed sessions to map out a path that satisfies the constitutional requirement of a 61-seat majority.
