In the 1st District, former state legislator and emergency room physician Amish Shah is challenging Republican Jay Feely. The seat is open because incumbent Representative David Schweikert, whom Shah narrowly defeated in the 2024 primary, chose to run for governor this year. Representative Greg Stanton, a senior Democrat in the district, rallied volunteers in North Phoenix, urging them to “win” and “not lose,” describing the race as the “most important race in the entire United States of America.”
Feely, a former NFL kicker and broadcaster, said he was inspired to run after witnessing President Trump’s near-assassination in Pennsylvania. “With blood on his face, President Trump raised a fist, and he told this nation to fight,” Feely said at a Republican event in Texas this September. Feely’s campaign did not respond to interview requests. The race features significant partisan contrasts, with Shah opposing the construction of data centers in the district, while Feely argues they would bring necessary revenue to the state.
Political analysts note that the demographic composition of the district is critical. Registered Republicans outnumber Democrats by approximately 60,000 voters in this wealthy suburban area. However, one-third of registered voters in the district are independents. Samara Klar, a political scientist at the University of Arizona, stated that Arizona voters are generally moderate and that Democratic campaigns have been more successful in appealing to this centrist mentality than Republican campaigns in recent years. Despite this, Klar cautioned that polls have historically overstated support for Democrats, suggesting the final margin may be closer than projected.
The Cook Political Report rates the race as leaning toward Shah. In the 6th District, which spans rural southeastern Arizona, Democrats also view the seat as a potential target. Kathleen Winn, chair of the Pima County Republican Party, disputed the notion of a “blue wave,” stating, “I don’t expect a wave… overall, I’m confident if people vote not with their emotions, but vote with facts, the Republicans win walking away.” Winn emphasized that her party is working to boost turnout to prevent Democratic gains.
Individual voters reflect the complex calculus of the election. Emily Schwartz, an independent voter in Phoenix who supports Republicans due to their stance on Israel, said she supports Democrats this year due to concerns over reproductive rights, water supply, and healthcare costs. “I really want Democrats to win Congress,” Schwartz said. The outcome of these races will be determined on November 3, with no further scheduled major votes or hearings specified in the immediate timeline.
