The government announced the revised data at a national forum organized by the Ministry of National Strategy. Fitsum Assefa Adela, Ethiopia’s Minister of Planning and Development, stated that the rebasing provides internationally comparable statistics and strengthens confidence among investors, rating agencies, and development partners. The ministry noted that the previous benchmark, established in the 2008 Ethiopian Fiscal Year (2015/16), failed to adequately capture structural changes in the economy, including the expansion of services and emerging activities such as digital finance.
The new GDP series uses the 2017 Ethiopian Fiscal Year (2024/25) as its base year. The revised estimates draw on recent national agriculture and economic establishment censuses, an integrated household survey, and administrative records. Notably, the calculations now incorporate data from federal and regional state-owned enterprises and non-profit institutions for the first time. Under the new methodology, the services sector accounts for nearly 36% of output, including contributions from Ethiopian Airlines, Africa’s largest carrier. Agriculture represents 32% of the economy, while industry makes up 30%. The government also projected GDP growth of 10.2% for the current fiscal year, supported by reforms in telecommunications and banking and a freely floating currency implemented two years ago under an IMF-backed program.
For the 2025/26 fiscal year, the measured economy is estimated at $210.7 billion. Analysts note that while the rebasing improves headline debt sustainability indicators by mechanically lowering debt-to-GDP ratios, it does not change the underlying financial reality. Alexander Venter of Oxford Economics observed that outstanding debt, servicing costs, and foreign-currency financing requirements remain unchanged. “The optics on debt improve, but the obligations do not,” Venter said. Ethiopia continues to restructure its loans through the G20 Common Framework, a process that the revised statistics could support by presenting a larger economic base for debt repayment capacity.
The statistical update follows a similar rebasing exercise in South Africa, which also saw changes to its debt ratios. For Ethiopia, the primary impact is a more robust evidence base for fiscal policy, budgeting, and development planning. By accurately reflecting the size of the modern service sector and state-owned entities, the new data aims to provide a clearer picture of the country’s economic trajectory as it seeks to attract further foreign investment and stabilize its macroeconomic indicators.
