The AfD’s political momentum is evident in recent local and state elections, where the party finished first in Saxony-Anhalt and Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, and placed third in Berlin. Although the AfD lacks an absolute majority in Saxony-Anhalt, its influence has expanded through the election of an AfD politician as parliamentary speaker with external support. These victories have placed intense pressure on the governing Christian Democratic Union (CDU), which for the first time in post-war history failed to win enough seats to enter a specific state parliament. The party’s leader, Chancellor Friedrich Merz, faces a fragmented political landscape exacerbated by economic stagnation that has persisted since 2019.
Economic headwinds are driving the political fragmentation. Germany is undergoing rapid deindustrialization, losing an estimated 15,000 industrial jobs per month as Chinese competitors, supported by aggressive subsidy and currency policies, flood the market with high-value goods such as electric vehicles. Major firms, including Volkswagen, are contemplating mass cuts that could eliminate up to 100,000 jobs. Although Chancellor Merz reformed the debt brake in March 2025 to allow borrowing for infrastructure and defense, growth is projected to remain modest at 1.2% in 2026. Private consumption remains subdued, and the government’s proposals to restrict single market access for countries using economic coercion, such as China, may have arrived too late to stabilize traditional industries.
The domestic political climate has intensified security concerns among vulnerable communities. On October 9, a confrontation outside a synagogue in Halle exposed deep fears regarding the AfD’s potential institutional influence. Jewish students prevented AfD politician Hans-Thomas Tillschneider, a vice president of the state parliament, from entering the building during a memorial for the 2019 far-right attack. Tillschneider, who has described Germany’s Holocaust remembrance as a “guilt cult” and advocated for reducing Holocaust education in schools, reportedly asked authorities to remove the students, but police declined. An investigation into a suspected criminal insult connected to the incident was subsequently dropped by prosecutors.
Naomi Tamir, a board member of the German Union of Jewish Students, warned that an AfD-led administration could reduce state-funded synagogue security, transforming antisemitism from a fringe threat into a structural problem within government institutions. She stated, “The antisemitism will be structural now if AfD gets into more and more places; it will be devastating for the Jewish community.” The incident highlights a broader trend where the AfD’s expanding role in state governments is raising alarms about the protection of minority communities and the integrity of democratic institutions.
Meanwhile, the transatlantic relationship faces its most significant rupture in history. Since January 2025, the Trump administration has adopted a confrontational stance toward Europe, including sweeping tariffs imposed on April 2, 2025, and threats regarding Greenland. Although the US administration sought to reshape Europe in line with MAGA ideology, the strategy has backfired with the very far-right parties it attempted to support. The AfD’s decision to distance itself from Washington underscores that shared domestic populism does not guarantee alignment on international order, particularly regarding American hegemony and the principle of non-interference.
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