TAPI is a planned 1,800-kilometer pipeline designed to connect Turkmenistan’s vast Galkynysh gas fields with consumers in Afghanistan, Pakistan, and eventually India. First envisioned in the 1990s, the project has long been hampered by local strife in Afghanistan and broader geopolitical tensions. By 2024, interest had cooled significantly; India appeared to have turned its back on the initiative, and Pakistan’s enthusiasm waned. With a projected cost of up to $10 billion, the delays led some analysts to question Turkmenistan’s unshakeable commitment. John M. Roberts, a UK-based senior fellow with the Atlantic Council, noted that for Turkmenistan, the pipeline is a “source of pride,” suggesting that Ashgabat’s fixation on the project drove them to demonstrate tangible progress regardless of external hesitation.
However, the geopolitical landscape has shifted. The recent Iran war, specifically Tehran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz, has stifled energy supplies from the Persian Gulf, creating an energy crisis that may have restored Pakistan’s interest in TAPI. At the same Ashgabat conference where the pipeline’s progress was unveiled, Faryal Leghari, Pakistan’s ambassador to Turkmenistan, vowed that Islamabad was now “committed” to advancing the line. Roberts observed that by investing its own capital to develop the segment to Herat, Turkmenistan may be positioning itself to seek partnerships for the route’s continuation south to Kandahar and into Pakistan. The section of pipeline to Herat has reportedly cost Ashgabat $600 million.
The construction process within Afghanistan presents its own logistical and security challenges. Afghan insiders who witnessed the work told RFE/RL’s Radio Azadi that the pipeline construction faces difficulties, including the presence of unexploded ordnance along the route. Work is carried out exclusively by Turkmen engineers and experts using Turkmen-owned equipment, with Afghan involvement limited primarily to armed security personnel at the worksites. One Afghan man, whose name was withheld for security reasons, described the daily operations: “Every morning at the Torghundi border crossing between Afghanistan and Turkmenistan, large vehicles — minibuses or buses belonging to the Turkmens — would transport workers to the construction sites. In the evening the workers would be transported back again.”
In Herat, where residents have recently faced spikes in gas prices and electricity shortages that disrupted local factories, the pipeline’s approach has generated mixed reactions. Many locals view the 1.42-meter-wide pipeline as a lifeline. Abu Ali, a local resident, described the pipeline’s approach as “a real sign of hope,” stating, “everyone feels happy about it.” However, not all sentiments are uniformly optimistic. Abdul Saboor Rahmani, a 27-year-old software engineer, expressed a more measured concern regarding pricing. “Along with the rest of the people of Herat, I insist we be able to access this gas transparently and that only a small markup is made to the global market price rather than selling it to us at the current exorbitant rate or only slightly lower,” Rahmani said. This concern highlights the tension between infrastructure availability and affordability for end users.
The economic structure of TAPI remains heavily skewed toward its larger neighbors. Afghanistan, which has a tiny industrial base compared to its eastern neighbors, was only scheduled to receive approximately 5 percent of the pipeline’s gas flow, with Pakistan and India splitting the remaining 95 percent equally. While Kabul has floated the idea of Russia investing in the pipeline’s onward route and stands to gain hundreds of millions of dollars in annual transit fees if the line extends to Pakistan and India, the physical reality of serving a local market in Herat is distinct from the broader regional export strategy. Roberts pointed out that while the pipeline is large-scale in physical capacity, its immediate relevance to Herat is local. He added that the eventual extension to the energy-hungry markets of Pakistan and India should be a “no-brainer,” but geopolitical uncertainty and Turkmenistan’s reluctance to include outside investors complicate the picture.
The path forward remains uncertain. Roberts noted that the key question is whether Turkmenistan can secure Chinese financial support, given that the project is likely too large for Ashgabat to handle alone. As the pipeline extends further into Afghan territory, the focus now turns to whether the political will and financial backing required to bridge the gap to Pakistan will materialize. For now, the pipeline stands as a testament to Turkmenistan’s ambition, yet the harnessing of its “gigantic resources” for reliable export remains a work in progress, dependent on a fragile regional peace and substantial international capital.
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