The central development driving this shift is the collapse of the traditional center-right governing coalition, Chile Vamos. The party’s standard-bearer, Sebastián Sichel, has seen his support erode significantly, a downturn largely attributed to the fallout from the Pandora Papers scandal. The leak revealed that President Sebastián Piñera’s family signed a secret agreement benefiting from the sale of the Dominga mining company, a transaction executed in the British Virgin Islands tax haven. The Chilean public prosecutor’s office has opened an investigation into potential bribery and tax evasion, while the National Congress has initiated political hearings that could lead to Piñera’s impeachment. This institutional crisis has left the center-right fragmented, creating a vacuum that has allowed José Antonio Kast of the right-wing Partido Republicano to surge in the polls.
Kast’s rise presents a stark alternative to the established political order. A long-serving politician who has held office since 1996, Kast advocates for an unconditional defense of the “subsidiary state,” a model inherited from the Pinochet era that restricts government service provision to areas where the private sector does not operate. His campaign relies on populist rhetoric that frames social unrest and economic challenges as the result of foreign interference and criminal actors, appealing strongly to conservative sectors who were disillusioned by the social uprising of 2019. Unlike the traditional right, which has governed Chile in alternation with the center-left since 1989, Kast represents a reactionary force that seeks to protect the existing economic structure against what he perceives as destabilizing influences.
The Erosion of Traditional Coalitions
The decline of the traditional parties is not limited to the presidential race. In the May 2021 “mega election,” which selected members for the new Constitutional Convention, voters overwhelmingly rejected the established coalitions. Although Chile Vamos received the largest share of the vote, it secured only 37 of the 155 seats. The left-wing alliance Approve Dignity placed second with 28 seats, while the anti-establishment List of the People, composed largely of independent candidates, finished third with 26 seats. This outcome reflects a broader national trend in which mass partisanship has declined and citizens have increasingly opted for new political groupings over the stable, centrist institutions that have defined Chilean politics for three decades.
Leading the race is Gabriel Boric of the left-wing Apruebo Dignidad coalition. Boric’s political trajectory, from radical student leader to presidential frontrunner, mirrors the emergence of a new generation of politicians who found their voice during the October 2019 social unrest. His platform calls for a substantial expansion of fiscal spending to improve healthcare and education, the replacement of the private pension system with a public-run model, and higher royalties on the mining sector. These proposals mark a significant departure from Chile’s historic commitment to orthodox, market-friendly economic policies, potentially eroding the business environment that has long been considered the best in Latin America.
Behind Boric and Kast, the center-left candidate Yasna Provoste of the Nuevo Pacto Social coalition is positioned to split the difference, promising increased state provision of social services without displacing the private sector’s central role. However, with a large number of undecided voters and the possibility of outsider candidates siphoning votes, the final outcome remains uncertain. It is all but certain that the election will proceed to a second round in December, where the contrasting visions for Chile’s economic and social future will be put to the test by a electorate that has decisively moved away from the status quo.
