This is Guterres’s final global climate address in his capacity as UN chief, as his second and final term expires at the end of the year. His warning follows a significant shift in scientific consensus regarding the 2015 Paris Agreement’s goal of limiting warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. Guterres revealed that scientists recently informed him that maintaining the 1.5C threshold is no longer possible due to excessive carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuel combustion. “That was an enormous shock for me,” Guterres said, noting that the failure lies not with the world, but with political leadership that has lacked a long-term strategic view.
The summit brings together delegates from more than 190 countries, but the United States is absent from formal negotiations following President Donald Trump’s withdrawal from the Paris Agreement. In a compromise arrangement, Australia will preside over the formal negotiations, focusing on work programs such as the “just transition,” climate finance, and mechanisms to limit temperature “overshoot.” Turkey will oversee the “action agenda,” which includes voluntary, non-binding agreements on circular economy, methane reduction, and the electrification of the global economy.
Key scientific and operational contexts define the current climate crisis. A potent El Niño weather pattern is currently scrambling global weather systems, exacerbating extreme heat, storms, and droughts. The urgency is underscored by recent disasters in Nepal, where floods in August killed more than 1,400 people and left 5,600 missing; scientists indicated that climate change played a role in these events. In response, Nepal has been granted access to the global “loss and damage” fund, though developing nations argue these resources are insufficient for broader adaptation needs.
Negotiations will center on a “roadmap” for transitioning away from fossil fuels, a topic first included in a resolution at COP28 in 2023 without a specific deadline. Brazil has presented two roadmaps, one on transitioning away from fossil fuels and another on halting deforestation, which may serve as frameworks for the summit. Additionally, the “electrification” of the global economy is a primary focus, with data indicating that electric vehicles and renewable energy are gaining traction; for instance, China’s oil imports are projected to drop by 12% this year due to electric vehicle uptake, and its renewable capacity has outstripped coal.
Looking ahead, the summit aims to secure progress on climate finance for developing countries and resolve disputes within the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. While the absence of the US government limits the scope of binding global commitments, a “coalition of the willing” comprising over 60 countries, including the UK, the EU, and Brazil, continues to push for accelerated fossil fuel transitions. Guterres has called for taxing the windfall profits of fossil fuel companies to support nations most affected by climate impacts, a stance supported by former US Vice President Al Gore, who described Guterres as “eloquent, forceful and right on target.”
