Researchers at Johns Hopkins University have developed a new tool to estimate the financial burden of these outbreaks. Based on 2026 case counts, the tool calculates an economic cost of nearly $83 million. This total comprises $56 million in public health response costs, almost $25 million in lost productivity, and more than $1.8 million in direct medical expenses. The tool also estimates that 2025 outbreaks, which involved 2,289 confirmed cases, carried an economic cost of more than $37 million. These estimates are not a definitive accounting of actual costs but illustrate the significant financial impact of a disease preventable through vaccination.
The economic burden extends beyond treating infected patients. Public health officials must investigate infections, identify exposed contacts, and coordinate with hospitals and schools, efforts that divert staff from other priorities. Costs vary significantly by state. For instance, the 803 cases in Texas, the epicenter of the largest 2025 outbreak, carried estimated costs of nearly $13 million, including $9 million in public health costs. In contrast, New York’s 48 cases in 2025 carried an estimated $1.1 million in costs, with average inpatient hospital stays costing roughly $4,200 a day.
Indirect costs, such as lost productivity, are a major component of the total expense. Measles is highly contagious, and a single case can expose dozens of others who may need to quarantine or miss work. A 2025 study by Joey Mattingly at the University of Utah modeled a hypothetical 1,500-case outbreak, estimating costs of about $90 million, including roughly $26 million in productivity losses. Mattingly noted that each person quarantined could amount to roughly $300 in lost productivity. If one case exposes 40 to 50 people, that translates to an estimated $12,000 to $15,000 in lost productivity, even if none of those contacts become sick.
Bryan Patenaude, a health economist at the International Vaccine Access Center at Johns Hopkins, noted that a significant portion of the cost is incurred upfront due to the labor involved in contact tracing. His team’s earlier study, published in August, used historical data to estimate a fixed cost of roughly $298,000 per outbreak and about $16,300 for each additional case. While the new tool uses more recent, state-specific data, it highlights how falling childhood immunization rates lead to adults who were never exposed or vaccinated facing serious illness and high medical expenses. The findings aim to help state and local health departments better anticipate the resources needed to contain outbreaks as cases continue to rise.
