The oceanic heat released by this “supersized” El Niño is projected to significantly elevate global land temperatures. Researchers from the University of Chicago’s Climate Impact Lab estimate that the phenomenon could contribute to an increase in global land temperatures of approximately 1.2 degrees Celsius over the coming months. This thermal surge carries severe health implications; the lab projects that nearly 451,000 more people could die from excessive heat between June 2026 and February 2027 compared to a typical year. The burden of these deaths is not evenly distributed, with the Global South facing the greatest risks. Nigeria, Sudan, Niger, and Chad are expected to record more than 65,000 heat-related deaths combined, while the Philippines, Vietnam, Thailand, Cambodia, and Indonesia are projected to see close to 40,000 deaths collectively. High mortality risks are also anticipated in Brazil and India.
Michael Greenstone, a cofounder of the Climate Impact Lab, emphasized that while the aggregate number is staggering, it represents individual lives. “It is made up of parents and children, grandparents and neighbors, people going to work, caring for families, and living their lives,” Greenstone stated. The report aims to provide decisionmakers with targeted data to allocate emergency funds and implement protective measures such as cooling centers, hydration stations, and worker protections in the most vulnerable regions.
In the United States, the impacts of the El Niño vary significantly by region. In the Midwest, which includes states such as Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, and Wisconsin, El Niño winters are commonly, though not always, warmer than usual. Historical data from strong El Niño events show winter temperatures ranging from 3°F to more than 8°F above the 20th-century average. This warming trend is most pronounced in Minnesota and Wisconsin, with a somewhat weaker response further south and east toward Missouri and Michigan. Along with milder temperatures, there is evidence that El Niño winters in this region may lack major cold spells. Precipitation patterns also shift, with a tendency for Michigan, Ohio, and Indiana to experience drier conditions, while parts of Iowa may receive more rain than normal.
The relationship between El Niño and Great Lakes ice cover has evolved. While earlier El Niño winters were more likely to feature lower ice cover, recent events have shown little consistent relationship. In three of the four most recent very strong El Niños, maximum ice cover on the Great Lakes was lower, and peak coverage occurred earlier in the year. However, the 1991–1992 winter was an exception, recording above-average ice on Lakes Superior, Huron, and Erie, with maximum coverage occurring later in the season.
Across the Southwest, the outlook for precipitation is more complex. During many El Niño winters, the jet stream shifts south, steering storms toward Southern and Central California, much of Arizona, southern Nevada, and southeastern Utah, often resulting in wetter-than-normal conditions. However, this is not a guarantee; the 2015–2016 “Godzilla” El Niño, for instance, brought drier conditions to Southern California and Arizona while wetting most of Nevada. Predictability is limited by atmospheric rivers—narrow bands of wet air that heavily influence regional precipitation. El Niño is not a strong predictor of the number, location, or angle of these rivers, making precise winter forecasts difficult. Snowfall outcomes are similarly variable; while seasonal averages might suggest snowier conditions, historical data from the Central Sierra Snow Lab indicates that above-average snowfall occurs in only about half of El Niño winters in the region.
Meteorologists warn that the most severe impacts of the current event are still ahead, with the World Meteorological Organization predicting the El Niño will reach peak intensity closer to the end of 2026. The U.S. Climate Prediction Center expects the pattern to persist through the Northern Hemisphere winter and potentially into spring. As the event strengthens, the interplay between natural climate variability and human-caused warming continues to amplify risks, from extreme heat in tropical regions to altered water resources in the American interior.
