According to two diplomatic sources cited by Israeli media, Iran has signed off on Qatari-brokered terms that would see Tehran reopen the Strait of Hormuz and halt attacks on Gulf tankers. In return, Washington would lift its naval and economic blockade of Iran and release $8 billion in Iranian funds frozen in Qatar. The proposed agreement sees Iran drop its demand to control the strait and charge transit fees, although the nuclear program remains excluded from the negotiations. Neither the U.S. nor Iranian governments have officially confirmed these terms.
Despite the diplomatic progress, internal opposition within the U.S. administration is evident. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, and Secretary of War Pete Hegseth reportedly oppose the deal. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, speaking in Florida on Sunday, characterized Iran’s demands as “outrageous and ridiculous” and stated that the two sides are not close to a breakthrough. Trump, however, maintained that economic pressure is forcing Iran’s leadership to accept U.S. terms, claiming Iran is a “failing nation” with 301 percent inflation, a figure that contradicts Iranian official statistics which place year-on-year inflation at nearly 90 percent in September.
Market reactions have been volatile, reflecting the uncertainty surrounding the conflict’s resolution. Brent crude fell 3.6% to $94.00 per barrel on Monday, extending a 16% weekly slide, while WTI dropped 3% to $88.09. The decline follows Trump’s comments and reports of the potential deal, though Murban crude, the physical Gulf benchmark, climbed 3.4% to $99.17 in Asian trading. Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remains precarious, with Washington and Tehran both reporting attacks on vessels over the weekend. Additionally, the Iran-aligned Houthis claimed a strike on Saudi Aramco’s offices in Riyadh on Sunday.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi indicated that peace talks had been paused to assess the political fallout from the U.S. midterm elections, where the Republican Party lost control of Congress. Araghchi stated that mediators have halted travel while the U.S. “digests” the election results. He noted that Trump recognizes American public fatigue with the war and Israel’s influence on U.S. foreign policy. A previous memorandum reached in Switzerland in May collapsed after an Iranian attack on oil tankers, highlighting the fragility of past diplomatic attempts.
The immediate next step is the Monday meeting between Trump and the Qatari prime minister. The outcome of this discussion will determine whether the $8 billion fund release and blockade lift proceed, or if the U.S. considers resuming military strikes, a move Trump has previously threatened if negotiations fail to produce a “very strong agreement.”
2 Comments